Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets
Monday, April 13, 2026
Final Score Grizzlies 101 - Rockets 132
Spread: P
Total:
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Memphis Grizzlies (25-57 (14-27)) traveling to take on Houston Rockets (52-30 (30-11)) at Toyota Center (Houston), Houston, TX. This is a significant mismatch on paper. The Rockets outscore opponents by 10.9 more points per game than the Grizzlies, reflecting a wide talent and execution gap between these two programs.
Rockets's 115.0 PPG offense runs into a Grizzlies defense that surrenders only 120.7 PPG. Expect the home team to face tougher sledding than usual on the offensive end. The Grizzlies offense puts up 114.8 PPG and faces a Rockets defense allowing 110.0 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
The 3.0-point home court advantage in NBA is baked into our model, and Rockets will aim to make that factor count with crowd energy. Our model projects Rockets to win by approximately 6.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Rockets winning by 22 to losing by 8. The pace profile leans uptempo here — the combined average sits around 115 PPG. Higher-scoring games often create more volatility in spread outcomes.
The 9.6-point edge we see on Grizzlies represents one of the larger model-vs-market disagreements on today's board. These situations have historically been profitable when the edge exceeds 3 points.
The market has this game at -16.5, but our model sees value on Grizzlies with a 9.6-point edge. Our line: Rockets -6.9. Combined with the total projection of 230 versus the market line of 226.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
MEM Grizzlies
Stat
HOU Rockets
25-57 (14-27)
Record
52-30 (30-11)
Last 10
114.8
PPG
115.0
120.7
Opp PPG
110.0
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | +700 ↑ | +14.5 ↑ | O 230.5 |
| HOU Houston Rockets | -1100 ↓ | -14.5 ↓ | U 230.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Apr 13, 5:43 AM
Opening line: -12.5 / O/U 224.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | +211 | +6.9 | O 229.9 |
| HOU Houston Rockets | -211 | -6.9 | U 229.9 |
Source: Model Updated: Apr 13, 2:46 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: -6.9
Injury-adjusted total: 229.9
Our Picks
Spread
P
Grizzlies (opened at -12.5)
59% Confidence
Play to +7.8
Total
Pass
Model: 229.9 | Edge below threshold
Injury Calculator
Updated Apr 13, 2:46 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model-6.9
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-6.9
Play to-7.8
Total
Base model229.9
Injury adj.0
Adjusted229.9
Recent Trends
Rockets sits at 52-30 (30-11) this season — a team that can beat anyone on a good night but has dropped games they probably should have won. Home court could be the catalyst they need to put a full game together.
It's been a difficult season for Grizzlies at 25-57 (14-27). Traveling to face Rockets presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
This matchup will come down to who can impose their style of play. Defensive intensity and rebounding will be key factors in determining which team walks away with the victory.
Matchup Edges
Rockets
Advantages
- 52-30 (30-11) record reflects a team that knows how to win
- Playing at home with home court energy and familiarity
- Potent attack putting up 115.0 PPG this season
Disadvantages
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Losing record (25-57 (14-27)) saps confidence on the road